Thursday, July 9, 2009

Market Speculations & guesses that triggered oil price

The surge in oil prices in the past several years has led some experts to argue that at least some of the rise is due to speculation in the futures markets. Some of those events are listed below :

  • A recent report suggested that Saudi Arabia's oil fields now are in decline, that the country will not be able to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years. This report brought huge swings in prices although the report is still to be verified.

Past events That Triggered Swings In Price Of Oil

Following are some of the events in past that triggered huge swings in price of Oil
  • In January 1999 , after increased oil production from Iraq coincided with the Asian Financial Crisis, which reduced demand a low point was reached at $16( US$ per barrel), .
  • In september 2006 , US crude oil crossed $80. Multiple factors were responsible for this high price. 1) OPEC announced an oil output increase lower than expected. 2) US stocks fell lower than experts predicted, 3) Changes in federal oil policies , 4) Leftist group in Mexico attacked six oil pipelines .
  • In October 2007 US light crude oil rose above $90 for the first time, due to a combination of tensions in eastern Turkey and the reducing strength of the US dollar.
  • On November 19, 2007, global oil price reacted strongly as OPEC members spoke openly about potentially converting their cash reserves to the euro and away from the US dollar.
  • On July 11, 2008, oil price rose to a new record of $147.27 following concern over recent Iranian missile tests.
  • On October 10, 2008, oil traded below $85 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In response to low prices OPEC scheduled its meeting on November 18, 2008, a month ahead of scheduled meeting to discuss cutting oil production as oil experiences declining world demand.

Market Sentiments & Speculations moving petroleum price

Market sentiments play a major role in determining price of products like petroleum . Certain world events also trigger speculations which become reason for great swings in price . Examples of such events are :

  • Markets react rapidly to Petroleum supply disruptions stemming from world events.
  • The Middle East is currently home to about two-thirds of the world’s Petroleum reserves and about a third of global petroleum production.
  • The Middle East has had mainly security related problems such as :
  • Arab–Israeli wars and conflicts,
  • Arab–Iranian war and conflicts,
  • Arab – Arab war and conflicts,
  • US–Gulf wars and conflicts , which hugely affects price of petroleum

  • Radicalism
  • Terrorist attacks : ( six pipelines were attacked by a leftist group in Mexico.)
  • Racism
  • Changes in federal laws & policies.

Forces Responsible for Shifts in Oil Demand

Following are the reasons that bring shifts in demand of petroleum
  • Strong economic growth in emerging countries increases demand.
  • Demand tends to gradually rise before and during the summer, when people drive more, and fall in the winter.

Forces Responsible For Shifts In Supply Of Petroleum

Following are the reasons that bring shifts in supply of Petroleum
  • Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has tried to keep world oil prices at its target level by setting an upper production limit on its members. read more...
  • On the supply side, especially at the outer edge of existing production capacity, adding new capacity is time-consuming and expensive. read more...
  • Refineries experiences operating difficulties
  • Leakage in pipelines or other supply issues. read more...
  • Lack of investment and expertise
  • Refinery distillation and conversion capacity

Reasons For Elasticity In Oil Prices

Lack of Substitutes: Consumers are limited in their ability to substitute between fuels . So, while consumers can substitute readily between food products when relative prices shift, most do not have that option in petrol in their vehicles.

Low Petroleum Inventory : To store huge stocks of Crude Oil is difficult and costlier. Most countries have Petroleum Stocks that last up to few weeks only.

Because of the above mentioned reasons , if there is any disruption in supply of crude oil, or even a speculation that oil supply may disrupt due to any reason , markets react strongly fearing sudden increase in oil prices and lack of supply. Petroleum is such a commodity that every country has to purchase , at whatever cost possible . If they don't buy crude oil today , they need to buy double quantity of oil tomorrow , and by then oil prices might have gone even higher.

Fundamental supply and demand factors provide the best explanation for the crude oil price swings.

When demand for a commodity like oil exceeds production capacity, the price will rise quite sharply because both demand and supply are fairly inelastic in the short run for oil.

Shifts in demand or supply, either up or down, will cause relatively larger swings in market price of crude oil.

How Is Petroleum (Crude Oil) Traded

The price of petroleum as quoted in news generally refers to the spot price of either WTI/Light Crude as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) .

The vast majority of oil is not traded on an exchange but on an over-the-counter basis .

The price of a barrel of crude oil is highly dependent on both its grade, determined by factors such as its specific gravity or API and its sulphur content, and its location.

Petroleum is marketed among other products in commodities markets. See above for details. Widely traded oil futures include:
  • Nymex Crude Future
  • Dated Brent Spot
  • WTI Cushing Spot
  • Nymex Heating Oil Future
  • Nymex RBOB Gasoline Future

Major Components Of Petroleum Price


The cost to produce and deliver Petroleum to consumers includes the cost of crude oil to refiners, refinery processing costs, marketing and distribution costs, and finally the retail station costs and taxes.

  • Extraction
  • Transported to Oil Refineries
  • Refined by Distillation
  • Transported to different Places for use
  • Taxes





The image compares the component of price of each of the processes in the final price of petroleum for two consecutive years , 2001 & 2002.

Uses Of Petroleum

To understand the fluctuating prices of petroleum, it's important to note where petroleum is being used . Petroleum products are used widely in our everyday lives. They are used to power automobiles produce containers and to keep us warm. Petroleum is mainly used as a fuel and as a raw material in the chemical industry.

As per trends till 2007 about 70% of petroleum was used for transportation (e.g. gasoline, diesel, jet fuel), 24% by industry (e.g. production of plastics), 5% for residential and commercial uses, and 2% for electricity production.

What Is Petroleum ( Crude Oil ) ?

Petroleum (petroleum, from Greek πετρέλαιον, lit. "rock oil") or crude oil is a naturally occurring, flammable liquid found in rock formations in the Earth consisting of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights, plus other organic compounds.

The term "petroleum" was first used in the treatise De Natura Fossilium, published in 1546 by the German mineralogist Georg Bauer, also known as Georgius Agricola.

Petroleum has probably been formed by a slow decomposition of organic matter under the earth's surface. It is found in cavities and crevices, and through the substance of the rock. In mining for it a well 3 or 4 inches in diameter, and sometimes 700 or 800 feet deep, is bored by drills, generally by steam-power. When rock containing petroleum is being bored through, what is called "a show of oil" is found. The chips and water drawn up from the well show and smell of the oil, but, unless the drill strikes a cavity or crevice filled with oil, the well isn't productive. This uncertainty is the most unfortunate peculiarity of oilmining, and makes it, to a great extent, a lottery, for there are no surface indications by which these cavities can be discovered.

Petroleum is much lighter than water, of a dark green or black color, with a peculiar and, to most persons, unpleasant odor. It is commercially divided into two kinds, the heavy, or lubricating oil, and the light oil. The former is more dense, and sometimes of the consistence of thin molasses. It is used, without preparation, for lubricating machinery, for which it is admirably suited. The light oil, before it can be used, is submitted to several purifying processes, the most important of which is distillation.

Petroleum is found in many localities on this continent. Among these may be mentioned as the most important, Canada West, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Western Virginia, California, Kentucky, and Tennessee. The first four yield more than nine-tenths of all now obtained, but it is probable that other regions will yield equally well when as thoroughly explored.